Speaking money

HowtospeakmoneyYesterday evening the Festival of Economics 2014 kicked off with the author John Lanchester in conversation with Izabella Kaminska of the FT. Lanchester, who is promoting his book How to speak money, had some very interesting and important things to say about the language of finance.

His key point was that the fact most people don’t understand or engage with the language and practices of finance has consequences. It means that bankers and economists are able to get away with obfuscation and mystification in order to hide their own ignorance or render opaque activities of very questionable social value. Because most people don’t really understand what is going on in finance they do not appreciate the risks that are being run or the ethics of some dubious practices. This lack of knowledge reduces public demands for greater regulation of the financial system, to the great benefit of the financiers.

But it is not simply the bankers and the public who are in the dark. Lanchester noted that last month the US bond market witnessed a seven sigma event – in terms of the volatility of short term interest rate movements. This is something which, if the models commonly used to analyze financial markets are right, is near impossible. The most obvious conclusion to draw, therefore, is that the models are wrong. So the analysts are in the dark as well. [Read more…]

Pathways to housing-related poverty

Affordable housing concept.The JRF report What will the housing market look like in 2040?, released yesterday, provided an eye-catching and headline-grabbing answer to the question that acts as its title. Presumably grabbing the headlines was the point.

The answer is that under plausible assumptions about future trajectories on tenure, costs and incomes we are looking at a future of higher housing costs, more private renting, and a substantially increased incidence of poverty. The authors, from Heriot Watt and Sheffield Universities, forecast that private renting will accommodate 20% of the population by 2040 and half of them will be living in poverty.

The authors argue that four factors, all to an extent under policy control, could combine to prevent this unhappy outcome. We need to see housebuilding in England rise to 200,000 homes a year by the 2020s and 220,000 by the 2030s. We need the decline in the proportion of households living in social renting to be halted. We need social rents to remain indexed as they are at the moment to prices. And housing benefit needs to continue to meet the same share of housing costs as it does at present. If the stars align favourably in this way then the unpleasant future sketched out might be avoided. [Read more…]

The apps that made it

A weekend post at Medium …

The apps that made it

Making the case for housing

case in collina#housingday will be marked for the second time on 12th November 2014. It is an opportunity for people in the UK to make the case for housing, and for social housing in particular. Social housing organisations and tenants will be sharing experiences and stories of the difference housing makes. You can find out more here.

My blogposts only rarely deal with housing at the frontline. The focus is more often on policy, politics and principles than on the detail of the difference good housing makes to people’s lives. Nonetheless, #housingday feels like a good opportunity to draw some thoughts together. I have therefore assembled a collection of blogposts – the first one I’ve done in nearly a year. This collection comprises a selection of nine posts since early 2013 on issues relating to the direction of housing policy and the importance of good quality housing.

I hope some readers might find it an interesting complement to the more grounded discussions and activities of the day. [Read more…]

Nudge and the state

Nutrition LabelsLast week I took part in an enjoyable discussion on nudge policy as part of Thinking Futures, the annual festival of social sciences. Through a slightly mysterious process I ended up speaking in favour of nudge-type policies, while Fiona Spotswood from UWE made the case against relying on behaviour change initiatives. Fiona made a robust case. I have to say mine was a little less than compelling, in part because in reality I have quite a lot of sympathy with the critics. I find debating from a position you don’t entirely agree with more successful on some days and some topics than on others. This was not one of the better days.

Nonetheless, I find the topic of nudge, and behaviour change policy more broadly, fascinating because it raises so many issues. [Read more…]

#SaveEd

5372858740_b8895864bc_mThere are many roles in life I wouldn’t like to occupy. Quite high on that list is Labour party strategist. What on earth is the next move?

Is the party genuinely in a tailspin? Or are current reports of internal strife the confection of a largely right wing media hellbent on undermining earnest Ed because they object to his mildly social democratic policy platform?

Is there any material difference between those two situations in terms of the likely impact upon Miliband’s abysmal poll ratings and the party’s electoral prospects?

The question facing the strategists is, I guess, what can be done. Or, perhaps more pertinently, can anything be done? James Forsyth in the Spectator, for example, notes that:

what is alarming for Labour is that it is not obvious how they pull out of this downward spiral. Opposition parties rarely put on votes in the last few months of a parliament and Miliband has already fired several of his best policy shots.

Forsyth, and other commentators, note that Miliband’s characteristic response to bad press is to make a speech. But it was a poorly executed speech that triggered this latest malaise, so that isn’t perhaps the failsafe strategy it once was. And it may be that another speech isn’t really what’s needed.

It feels like the Labour party need to try something different. But what? [Read more…]

New(ish) kids on the blog

BlogOn Twitter the other day my attention was drawn to the revised version of Patrick Dunleavy’s thoughts on the matter of academic blogging. For the small number of you who perhaps may not be familiar with Professor Dunleavy he is not only one of the UK’s best known political scientists but also one of the prime movers behind the London School of Economics’ suite of hugely influential blogs on policy, social science and impact.

Professor Dunleavy takes the view that:

in research terms blogging is quite simply, one of the most important things that an academic should be doing right now.

Yet, he also takes the view that single authored blogs like this one, while very much dominant at the start of the whole blogging thing, are not really where the action is in contemporary blogging, academic or otherwise. [Read more…]

Defining the challenge of UK housing policy

immobilier parisienYesterday I was back up in that London to attend an event exploring UK housing policy. Many, of not most, of the luminaries of UK housing research made the same journey. The event covered quite a lot of ground, but at the same time the agenda was relatively narrow – focusing as it did on the macro, credit, housing supply, planning nexus. The discussion left me with plenty to think about and there is no way that it could be meaningfully summarised in a blog post. So here are a few quick reflections – not all of which flow from what was actually discussed on the day.

Three of the biggest challenges we currently face in housing are not technical policy challenges. They are perspective, purpose, and politics. [Read more…]

Social housing transformations

3d Render Of House Concept (Rent Metaphor)Last Thursday I toddled up to London to take part in a conference entitled Next Generation Solutions: Housing Transformation, organised by HACT/Northern Housing Consortium. I followed Frances Coppola as part of the final plenary session. My talk on the day was called Social Housing 2.0. But I’m not entirely sure that captures what I said. So I’ve retitled it here. You can find the text to accompany my presentation below the fold.

It was a very interesting event, with the various presentations cohering well around the theme (I’ll exclude my presentation from that statement – that’s for others to judge!). [Read more…]

Lyons leaps to height?

collage of photos of the industry of construction and buildingThe final report of the Lyons Housing Review – which may well be the last major party political publication on housing before the election – was published this week. How does it measure up? Has it delivered on the ambition to sort out the chronic problems of the UK’s housing supply system?

We’ve already seen plenty of political and professional reaction. And that reaction has been mixed.

Some see the Review’s 39 recommendations as adding up to a bold intervention to address the deeply-ingrained problems facing Britain’s misfiring housing market. Others have characterised the Review as representing a rather modest set of technocratic suggestions to deal with particular problems in the supply chain. Those looking for a bold new vision for housing are likely to have come away disappointed.

But we need to understand the nature and scope of the Review itself. [Read more…]