It seems that with each passing week the news on the housing front gets gloomier. A week ago the NHF published its latest Home Truths report which extrapolated current trends and concluded that if things carry on as they are then affordability – or rather unaffordability – will pretty rapidly reach new heights of absurdity. And we are barely able to grasp the implications of the longer-term scenarios for prices and rents set out in the report.
Of course, the chances of these forecasts proving accurate are pretty low. All sorts of things could, and probably will, intervene in the meantime. For example, the probability of a Help to Buy fuelled property price implosion just in time for – or more likely just after – the 2015 General Election is non-zero. And if that happens then the direction of the whole debate will change.
But the purpose of such forecasts is not to be accurate. They are a political call to action to try to ensure the future turns out differently. Given the media profile that the report achieved I would imagine the report is seen as having met its short term objectives at least.
A more substantial piece of research emerged a few days later when the third instalment of the Crisis/JRF Homelessness Monitor was published. This is an invaluable long term project documenting the impact of the changing social, economic and policy context upon housing and homelessness since the arrival of the Coalition government. I blogged about the previous report in The gathering storm. This year’s report presents a similarly gloomy picture. Jules has summarized some of the key points already. The trajectory of homelessness is very different in different regions, as are the principal causes in different parts of the country. But the overall picture the report paints is one of a deteriorating situation.
The report identifies three issues, which have perhaps had less prominence in the debate so far, that I thought worth noting. [Read more...]